5 months before, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson forecast that the genuine urgent position in the United States automobile market will emerge in the first half of 2009. 5 months subsequent, the American automobile market turbulence verified him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been shoved to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the chair, prepared for GM to bypass the last disintegrate of one stroke.

March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama turned down the President of the United States GM and Chrysler’s restructuring design, GM furthermore inquired the next 60 days, larger efforts should arrive up with the restructuring design, or only search bankruptcy protection. At the identical time, the United States, “three” in another Chrysler, and Fiat have furthermore went into into a international coalition structure agreement.

Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto giant to the final line of life and death, perhaps in two months later, the American car industry will have a significant change. Since spread to the global financial storm at the moment, the world map of motor vehicles has already begun on the loose; With increasing depth of the crisis, the North American market changes subversive clear increasing trend, which will be the pattern of the global auto industry and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile industry which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for information resource development, Xu Changming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a researcher Zhang Xin.

There is still hope that the United States Automobile

Some commentators trust that the Government of the United States intervention in general so serious, or will fully completed descend GM. In this view, Zhang Xin consider, if GM bankruptcy, in item is not basically due to incapacity to carry on to run while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, organisation, staff between the effects of a succession of games. But practically, a primary general-purpose or, in actual in the new vitality and hydrogen fuel technical knowledge has superiority, the prevailing need to start a new vitality, electrical motor vehicles in transition.

Even though the field of electric vehicles at GM to start earlier, and the formation of a more sophisticated technical system, but because before the economic crisis of the traditional American car sales have been stable, there will be no rush to the promotion of universal electric vehicles. Zhang Xin think should seize this opportunity now.

Development through common experiences, Xu Chang-ming also believes that the United States should step up for energy prices, economic models of development, the future oil prices will continue to improve, the United States “tall wide” dead end mode of development of the models.

The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of

Xu Changming think, regardless of whether or not GM will change, the pattern of the global automotive industry, great changes will certainly have to happen. Since any major economic crisis will have significant ramifications, and the United States and Japan will crack down on large enterprises.

The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan’s most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.

Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day acing for the Department of types are deliberated in the monetary critical purpose in a quite advantageous location, but the present circumstances, because the total North American market decline too much, effecting in the complete consequence can not own a enterprise . Statistics present that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 plunged to 17 million of the 13 million last year, possibly only this year arrived at 9,000,000.

In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.

Zhang accepts as factual that the development of the automotive commerce from the international position, Sino-Japanese financial urgent position at the Department of the development promise of vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as comprised by Toyota, Japanese vehicle charges in the enterprise beliefs, administration, merchandise minutia on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. finances out of the base of this year, it will be likely Japanese vehicles are the large-scale victors, but there is no earnings if the last “who furthermore can not carry.”

Zhang believes that the economic crisis, only to maintain the survival of the funds. If sales in emerging markets but it does not bring good returns, or no meaning. For instance, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car prices in emerging markets also have very good sales, but its profitability and strong high-end products, mainly in the North American market. When the 31 percent decline in the U.S. market, Toyota on the loss of that in emerging markets only, “go traffic” and not effective, the same will not work.

Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market worries

Same even though the economic urgent position influenced the Chinese automobile market, but because of principle alterations modified to have a large opening for the household market. Maintenance charge abolition of dropping oil charges, vehicle buy levy by half, “car to the rural areas policies” have assisted substantially to the little displacement and low-cost form development.

According to Xu Changming investigation, 80 per hundred pertains to their own emblem of such forms, it alterations from a principle viewpoint, the own emblem is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming referee, the next two years are the development of own emblems the chronicled opening of the second period. The first opening in annals are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an mean annual rate of more than 35% development in own emblems to stimulating opportunities; this principle are the possibilities at the market as a entire the position is not good Next, there is conspicuously conducive to the development of unaligned brands.

XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.

However, Xu Chang-ming sharp out that the principle furthermore directed to possibilities for our homeland vehicle will decrease the effectiveness of enterprises, little displacement the fast development of low-priced forms, but the general down high ground tendency in profits.

Zhang believes that the current so-called “good”, only the “quantity” a manifestation of, but if profits decline, and there is no large amount of further significance. Such an outcome is likely to cause the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a bad solution.

Zhang said that China’s auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China’s greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.

Zhang accepts as factual that China’s auto market is still in the “Government of the warlords under the defence of scrimmage.” Only by permitting enterprises to optimize the benefits, flaws enterprises be eradicated absolutely, the Chinese can become a actually powerful car.

5 months in the past, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson envisaged that the actual critical purpose in the United States automobile market will show in the first half of 2009. 5 months afterwards, the American automobile market turbulence confirmed him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been dropped to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the stool, geared up for GM to avert the terminal topple of one stroke.

March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama turned down the President of the United States GM and Chrysler’s restructuring design, GM furthermore inquired the next 60 days, larger efforts should arrive up with the restructuring design, or only search bankruptcy protection. At the identical time, the United States, “three” in another Chrysler, and Fiat have furthermore went into into a international coalition structure agreement.

Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto giant to the final line of life and death, perhaps in two months later, the American car industry will have a significant change. Since spread to the global financial storm at the moment, the world map of motor vehicles has already begun on the loose; With increasing depth of the crisis, the North American market changes subversive clear increasing trend, which will be the pattern of the global auto industry and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile industry which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for information resource development, Xu Changming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a researcher Zhang Xin.

There is still wish that the United States Automobile

Some commentators trust that the Government of the United States intervention in general so serious, or will fully completed descend GM. In this view, Zhang Xin consider, if GM bankruptcy, in item is not basically due to incapacity to carry on to run while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, organisation, staff between the effects of a succession of games. But practically, a primary general-purpose or, in actual in the new vitality and hydrogen fuel technical knowledge has superiority, the prevailing need to start a new vitality, electrical motor vehicles in transition.

Even though the area of electric driven vehicles at GM to start previous, and the formation of a more complicated mechanical scheme, but because before the financial urgent position of the customary American vehicle sales have been steady, there will be no hurry to the advancement of universal electric driven vehicles. Zhang Xin believe should grab this opening now.

Development through widespread knowledge, Xu Chang-ming furthermore accepts as factual that the United States should step up for power charges, financial forms of development, the future oil charges will extend to advance, the United States “tall wide” dead end mode of development of the models.

The global automobile industry or change the pattern of

Xu Changming think, regardless of whether or not GM will change, the pattern of the global automotive industry, great changes will certainly have to happen. Since any major economic crisis will have significant ramifications, and the United States and Japan will crack down on large enterprises.

The North American market has shrunk notably, the largest withstand the brunt of the conflict against the United States are restricted motor vehicle prices. At the matching time, because North America is Japan’s most valued objective the globalization market, Japanese motor vehicle costs are in addition hard hit.

Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day acing for the Department of types are deliberated in the monetary critical purpose in a quite advantageous location, but the present circumstances, because the total North American market decline too much, effecting in the complete consequence can not own a enterprise . Statistics present that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 plunged to 17 million of the 13 million last year, possibly only this year arrived at 9,000,000.

In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.

Zhang accepts as factual that the development of the automotive commerce from the international position, Sino-Japanese financial urgent position at the Department of the development promise of vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as comprised by Toyota, Japanese vehicle charges in the enterprise beliefs, administration, merchandise minutia on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. finances out of the base of this year, it will be likely Japanese vehicles are the large-scale victors, but there is no earnings if the last “who furthermore can not carry.”

Zhang believes that the economic crisis, only to maintain the survival of the funds. If sales in emerging markets but it does not bring good returns, or no meaning. For instance, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car prices in emerging markets also have very good sales, but its profitability and strong high-end products, mainly in the North American market. When the 31 percent decline in the U.S. market, Toyota on the loss of that in emerging markets only, “go traffic” and not effective, the same will not work.

Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market anxious

Same even though the financial crisis affected the Chinese automobile market, but because of policy changes adjusted to have a great opportunity for the domestic market. Maintenance fee abolition of falling oil prices, car purchase tax by half, “car to the countryside policies” have contributed greatly to the small displacement and low-cost model development.

According to Xu Changming examination, 80 out of 100 owned by to their own brand label of such types, it modifications from a guideline consideration, the own brand label is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming adjudicator, the next two years are the development of own brand labels the historic possibility of the second period. The first possibility in past files are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an midpoint annual rate of more than 35% expansion in own brand labels to rousing opportunities; this guideline are the chances at the market as a total the circumstances is not good Next, there is apparently conducive to the development of unconnected brands.

XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.

However, Xu Chang-ming sharp out that the principle furthermore directed to possibilities for our homeland vehicle will decrease the effectiveness of enterprises, little displacement the fast development of low-priced forms, but the general down high ground tendency in profits.

Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called “good”, only the “quantity” a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.

Zhang said that China’s auto market is chronicled opening for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will eternally be with the vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China’s biggest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive vehicle (the output of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not go in the world peak 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are output, have tens of thousands of flats of the gap 10.

Zhang trusts that China’s auto market is still in the “Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage.” Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car.