2009 China’s auto market, “Paul 10″ conflict

“The automobile industry restructuring and revitalization of planning” proposed in 2009 to China’s automobile production and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year average growth rate of 10 percent, it is necessary to achieve this goal is not easy to achieve in 2009 is 10% growth , there still exist a number of variables. In 2008, the national automobile production and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, compared to the past, increasing production and sales base, it is necessary to achieve 10% for three consecutive years of high growth, the challenge is not small.

Growth bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?

Ministry of information industry and published data show that in March, the National Automobile production 1,095,400, 35.59% growth in chain (in February than in March), an increase of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 percent growth, an increase of 5.01%.

Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world’s greatest automobile client market; Second, a solitary month to revisit to one million steps; Third, an advance of the past six months the the utmost point.

However, we should furthermore glimpse there are numerous problems: First, sales development exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, “the world” is only provisional, full-year 2009 may be tough to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an boost of down too, the present development bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is tough to state now; Fourth, fast development in March, the origin determinants of principle propelled, utilisation levy, buy levy slash, and the fuel levy restructure, a sequence of principles for example automobile rural areas performed a function in propping up the market; Fifth, dissimilarities in utilisation structure and conspicuously, in March sales of 772,400 traveller vehicles, up 10.26 per hundred, but sales of financial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the boost in automobile output and sales businesses half of the earnings are contradictory development, that there is still the topic of cost command, economic urgent position, the influence on the genuine finances is still deepening.

1-3 months in 2009, automobile output and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an boost of only 1.91% and 3.88%, decreased from the present inventory, and some forms traded out of the market position, 2009 years to accomplish the aim of 10% is expected to accomplish, but the force is not little and can only be warily optimistic.

In 2008, the national automobile production and sales dropped year-on-year increase of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which car sales dropped 20 and 16 percentage points decline in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales growth of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, therefore, whether the warmer automobile market is the key.

Small displacement and the job of drive vehicles can be moved ahead to the surrounding territories long?

As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the “small displacement”, the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.

“The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning” presents that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and underneath 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of traveller vehicle buy levy levied; At the identical time, the next three years, ” displacement of 1.5 liters of the following traveller market share overhead 40%, of which a little displacement underneath 1.0 liters vehicle market share overhead 15% “; vehicle for the rural areas is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.

So, what is “small displacement” countrywide motor vehicle is not very distinctly delineated, the development did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a forfeit for some enterprises, financial endeavour in R & D indecisive.

One is 1.0 liters and below is the real model of small displacement cars, if so, this part of the market share models in fact very small, not very hot but also the future of preferential policies to further can not only cover this part of model.

The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 out of 100, this expansion was chiefly due to the high use duty, and vehicle pay for duty lessening guideline support to countryside environs, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is supported on micro-off supported financial gathering, is a motor vehicle to the surrounding territories the most direct beneficiaries of the guideline, consequently, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not intend that a tiny displacement of the “golden period” on the up.

1-3 months, sales of cars out the top ten brands are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be seen, 1.3 or the following few models actually.

At present, the auto guideline support to countryside environs are chiefly wares and micro-light commuter motor vehicles out; China’s auto market is the “golden output” is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the fundamental thought of the consequence of use, 1.3 liters emissions and trade the following motor vehicle types have yet to be upgraded; the consequence of the charge itself is still bigger than the consequence of oil prices. The long time span, small-displacement motor vehicle to the surrounding territories and the hauling effect of these two environs may not have looked frontwards to less than ideal.

The problem is that the current increase mainly by small displacement with the vehicle driven to the countryside, and this is where the worry.

Decline in export profits decline

In 2008, the countrywide automobile trade overseas 684,900, accounting for the in the household automobile goods produced 7.36 out of 100, an advance of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, countrywide automobile trade overseas 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.

This means that trade overseas expansion in descent in 2008, supported on the year 2009, trade overseas are in all likelihood to decline the more serious.

On the one hand, China’s auto trade items mostly intensified in the “Asia” district, the place travelled to than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in specific by the exchange rate is subject to the influence of economic urgent position, the international vehicle market shrinking quickly, trade items down turn exacerbated by the present down high ground tendency continues.

In augmentation, though China’s auto yield inexpensive, but the worth of word-of-mouth and brand label photograph still wants to be enhanced, and this is a long-term can be effective. To summation up, the circumstances was very sombre automobile exports.

According to China’s Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the major enterprise earnings of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 per hundred down turn, the earnings amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 per hundred decline.

2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile development (group) on the complete descent in yield, while the speedier descent in 2009. Decline in yield for more reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is chiefly due to getting higher charges, carried on to descent in 2009 that cost manipulate in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, clearly present the upshots of market farther intensified, financial gatherings may not like to charge the market unfailing insist to worse costs, but view at the long-term movement will continue; the most rudimentary justification is the constricted amount of enterprise, productivity is not high, lithe goods produced is not realised and the stage of precision organisation is not high.

Policy to support the face wants to be augmented

2009, a affirmative component for China’s auto market more than the contradictory components, the general periods of the brilliant location in the world will extend to be, but is actually opposite large trials, if the next three years, “Paul 10″ the need for principle support was farther expanded.

2009, goods produced competence and organisation of even the utmost stages of Toyota’s yield is looked frontwards to to have extensively worse, we can observe how serious the circumstances, in the household enterprises are looking at “the expansion of trouble” and the dual demands of external challenges.

Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own brand is “the purchase of domestic products in a” replica.

First, the motor vehicle should be farther augmented to countryside environs, attention could be bestowed a farther 50 million to support the use of tiny displacement motor vehicles, in spite of of their own brand labels and connection endeavour brand labels, so as to avert conflicts.

Second, the acquisition of levy could be farther decreased underneath 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be advised tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be advised to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be advised down to 5 %. Will be less levy income, but the automotive buyer and other consumer-driven, conspicuously to encourage the function of household demand.

Third, the abolition of tour duty to clean up a farther accuse of minor thoroughfares to stop disguised charges.

Fourth, the road to recover the loan principal and interest of loans after the country, to stop the charges.

Fifth, to pace up the household market into line with worldwide oil charges, and to change the present household oil cost increase in worldwide oil charges increased quickly, the household oil charges in worldwide oil charges step-by-step fallen down the rank quo of the blame.

Sixth, to farther intensify in the new power, new technologies in support of efforts to boost the autonomy of the personal vehicle R & D support.

Seventh, automobile trade items expanded support, the befitting vehicle to lift the trade items levy refund rate, the establishment of a exceptional inducement finance to enhance trade items services platform.

Eighth, the norms and the advancement of engine vehicle economic development, and befitting relaxation rate vehicle borrowings and down fee, at the identical time the firm administration of individual borrowing records.

IX, regulate second-hand motor vehicle market, to support new-generation motor vehicle use, pay for employed motor vehicles to extend the guideline to support the new covering can be broadened to 20 million motor vehicles in the environs, but not constricted to redemption of light-weight wares, for instance micro-off.