2009 China’s auto market, “Paul 10″ combat

“The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning” suggested in 2009 to China’s automobile output and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year mean development rate of 10 per hundred, it is essential to accomplish this aim is not very easy to accomplish in 2009 is 10% development , there still live several variables. In 2008, the nationwide automobile output and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, contrasted to the past, expanding output and sales groundwork, it is essential to accomplish 10% for three successive years of high development, the dispute is not small.

Growth bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?

Ministry of knowledge development and issued written knowledge present that in March, the National Automobile goods produced 1,095,400, 35.59% expansion in flexible chain of bonds (in February than in March), an advance of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 out of 100 expansion, an advance of 5.01%.

Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world’s greatest automobile client market; Second, a solitary month to revisit to one million steps; Third, an advance of the past six months the the utmost point.

However, we should also see there are many problems: First, sales growth exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, “the world” is only temporary, full-year 2009 may be difficult to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an increase of down too, the current growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is difficult to say now; Fourth, rapid growth in March, the root causes of policy driven, consumption tax, purchase tax cut, and the fuel tax reform, a series of policies such as automobile countryside played a role in propping up the market; Fifth, differences in consumption structure and obviously, in March sales of 772,400 passenger cars, up 10.26 percent, but sales of commercial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the increase in automobile production and sales companies half of the profits are negative growth, that there is still the issue of cost control, financial crisis, the impact on the real economy is still deepening.

1-3 months in 2009, automobile goods produced and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an advance of only 1.91% and 3.88%, lessened from the prevailing inventory, and some types marketed out of the market circumstances, 2009 years to realise the objective of 10% is in all likelihood to realise, but the insist is not tiny and can only be carefully optimistic.

In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales declined year-on-year advance of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which motor vehicle sales declined 20 and 16 percentage points descent in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales expansion of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, consequently, if the warmer automobile market is the key.

Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?

As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the “small displacement”, the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.

“The automobile industry restructuring and revitalization of planning” provides that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and below 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of passenger vehicle purchase tax levied; At the same time, the next three years, ” displacement of 1.5 liters of the following passenger market share above 40%, of which a small displacement below 1.0 liters car market share above 15% “; car for the countryside is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.

So, what is “small displacement” national car is not clearly defined, the industry did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a loss for some enterprises, investment in R & D indecisive.

One is 1.0 liters and below is the real model of small displacement cars, if so, this part of the market share models in fact very small, not very hot but also the future of preferential policies to further can not only cover this part of model.

The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 percent, this growth was mainly due to the high consumption tax, and vehicle purchase tax reduction policy support to rural areas, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is based on micro-off based company, is a car to the countryside the most direct beneficiaries of the policy, therefore, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not mean that a small displacement of the “golden period” on the up.

1-3 months, sales of vehicles out the peak 10 emblems are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be glimpsed, 1.3 or the following couple of forms actually.

At present, the auto policy support to rural areas are mainly goods and micro-light passenger cars out; China’s auto market is the “golden output” is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the concept of the impact of consumption, 1.3 liters emissions and sell the following car models have yet to be upgraded; the impact of the price itself is still greater than the impact of oil prices. The long term, small-displacement car to the countryside and the pulling effect of these two areas may not have expected less than ideal.

The obstacle is that the prevailing advance chiefly by tiny displacement with the vehicle moved ahead to the surrounding territories, and this is where the worry.

Decline in export profits decline

In 2008, the nationwide automobile trade items 684,900, accounting for the household automobile output 7.36 per hundred, an boost of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, nationwide automobile trade items 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.

This means that trade items development in down turn in 2008, founded on the year 2009, trade items are expected to fall the more serious.

On the one hand, China’s auto trade items mostly intensified in the “Asia” district, the place travelled to than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in specific by the exchange rate is subject to the influence of economic urgent position, the international vehicle market shrinking quickly, trade items down turn exacerbated by the present down high ground tendency continues.

In addition, although China’s auto products cheap, but the quality of word-of-mouth and brand image still needs to be improved, and this is a long-term can be effective. To sum up, the situation was very serious automobile exports.

According to China’s Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the principle enterprise wages of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 out of 100 descent, the yield amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 out of 100 decline.

2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile commerce (group) on the general down turn in earnings, while the much quicker down turn in 2009. Decline in earnings for numerous reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is mostly due to increasing charges, proceeded to down turn in 2009 that cost command in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, illustrate the consequences of market farther intensified, businesses may not desire to cost the market unchanging force to smaller charges, but gaze at the long-term tendency will continue; the most basic cause is the restricted dimensions of enterprise, productivity is not high, thin output is not accomplished and the grade of precision administration is not high.

Policy to support the face wants to be augmented

2009, a positive factor for China’s auto market more than the negative factors, the overall terms of the bright spot in the world will continue to be, but is currently facing great challenges, whether the next three years, “Paul 10″ the need for policy support was further expanded.

2009, goods produced competence and organisation of even the utmost stages of Toyota’s yield is looked frontwards to to have extensively worse, we can observe how serious the circumstances, in the household enterprises are looking at “the expansion of trouble” and the dual demands of external challenges.

Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own brand label is “the pay for of in the household yield in a” replica.

First, the motor vehicle should be farther augmented to countryside environs, attention could be bestowed a farther 50 million to support the use of tiny displacement motor vehicles, in spite of of their own brand labels and connection endeavour brand labels, so as to avert conflicts.

Second, the acquisition of tax could be further reduced below 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be considered tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be considered to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be considered down to 5 %. Will be less tax revenue, but the automotive consumer and other consumer-driven, obviously to promote the role of domestic demand.

Third, the abolition of tour duty to clean up a farther accuse of minor thoroughfares to stop disguised charges.

Fourth, the thoroughfare to recoup the advance major and interest of advances after the nation, to finish the charges.

Fifth, to pace up the household market into line with worldwide oil charges, and to change the present household oil cost increase in worldwide oil charges increased quickly, the household oil charges in worldwide oil charges step-by-step fallen down the rank quo of the blame.

Sixth, to further intensify in the new energy, new technologies in support of efforts to increase the autonomy of the private car R & D support.

Seventh, automobile trade overseas advanced support, the advantageous vehicle to hoist the trade overseas duty reimbursement rate, the establishment of a extraordinary enticement account to enhance trade overseas services platform.

Eighth, the norms and the advancement of engine vehicle economic development, and befitting relaxation rate vehicle borrowings and down fee, at the identical time the firm administration of individual borrowing records.

IX, regulate second-hand car market, to support new-generation car consumption, buy used cars to expand the policy to support the new surface can be extended to 20 million cars in the area, but not limited to redemption of light goods, such as micro-off.